Home Loan Volume Expected to Jump in 2026
According to the latest update from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), single-family mortgage originations in the United States are projected to increase by about 8 % in 2026, building on what’s expected in 2025.
Here’s a breakdown of what the forecast shows:
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Total single-family mortgage origination volume is expected to reach about $2.2 trillion in 2026, up from about $2.0 trillion in 2025.
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Purchase loans (homebuying) are projected to rise by approximately 7.7 %, reaching around $1.46 trillion.
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Refinancing originations are expected to increase by about 9.2 %, reaching approximately $737 billion.
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By loan count, total single-family mortgage originations are projected to rise from about 5.4 million loans in 2025 to approximately 5.8 million in 2026.
Why this is happening
Several factors are converging to support this uptick:
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Mortgage rates are showing signs of easing slightly, improving affordability.
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Home prices are relatively stable in many markets, which removes some of the upward pressure that made homes less affordable.
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Inventory of homes is gradually increasing in some areas, giving buyers more options and reducing pressure on pricing.
What this means for homeowners and buyers
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For buyers, this improved environment could be a good signal: more loans available, more homes on the market, and a slightly more favorable cost environment.
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For homeowners considering a refinance: this may be a good time to evaluate whether refinancing makes sense. With refinances expected to rise nearly 10 %, many borrowers will act when the timing and rate make sense.
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For sellers, a rising loan volume suggests that more buyers may become active in the market—though success still depends on price, condition, and timing.